What Are the Key Issues in the 2025 Election?

🎧 Podcast Episode 190 with David Coletto

The 2025 federal election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent Canadian history.

As I sat down with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, he provided a clear breakdown of the shifting political landscape, the major issues that will define the campaign, and how Canadian voters are adjusting to a new reality.

The Issues Defining 2025

According to Coletto, three issues dominate the minds of Canadians as they prepare to cast their ballots:

1. Affordability and Cost of Living – "The cost of living remains the top issue," Coletto explained. "61% of Canadians put it in their top three concerns."

2. Donald Trump’s Impact on Canada – "Donald Trump and his administration as a top issue is now up to number two on our list. 50% of Canadians put it in their top three issues, up 11 points in two weeks."

3. The Economy, Housing, and Healthcare – "These round out the top five, but what’s remarkable is how much Trump’s presence is shifting voter priorities."

For months, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives looked poised to take power. But with Justin Trudeau stepping down and Mark Carney emerging as the Liberal leader, that dynamic is changing.

The Trump Effect: A Political Game-Changer

Three months ago, Pierre Poilievre’s path to victory seemed inevitable. Now, as Coletto puts it, "The entire trajectory of our country feels like it could be completely switched in the course of just 60 days."

Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports have caused widespread alarm, and his re-emergence as a dominant global figure is making many Canadians rethink their political allegiances. "What happened," Coletto explained, "is that one villain left the stage, and a bigger, badder, more scary villain entered—one external to Canada."

That shift is causing trouble for Poilievre. While he was effective in positioning himself as the alternative to Trudeau, his challenge now is convincing Canadians that he is the leader best equipped to deal with external crises. The Liberals, meanwhile, are capitalizing on this fear. As Coletto noted, "The perception in people's minds is that Poilievre would have been cheering on Trump in the last U.S. election, and there's too much similarity there."

Scarcity vs. Precarity: A New Voter Mindset

Another key theme in our conversation was how voter psychology has shifted. "For a long time, people were in a scarcity mindset," Coletto said. "They thought the things they needed were more expensive, harder to get, and if they had them, they might lose them." That played directly into Poilievre’s messaging about affordability and economic anxiety.

Now, Coletto argues, "The mindset has shifted from scarcity to precarity." Canadians are still worried about affordability, but their concerns are now framed in terms of global uncertainty—Trump’s trade threats, geopolitical instability, and economic volatility.

That shift benefits a candidate like Mark Carney, who presents himself as a steady, experienced hand in uncertain times. "We actually asked Canadians between Poilievre and Carney, who do you think best fits the description of the captain guiding us through a rough storm? And they were basically tied."

The Compassion Factor: A Conservative Weakness?

I raised a key observation to Coletto: Conservatives often struggle with projecting compassion. "Even on issues they care about, they lack empathy in how they communicate," I noted. "On Indigenous issues, LGBTQ+ rights, and social policy, they sound harsh."

Coletto agreed, but pointed out that Poilievre had previously resonated with voters by expressing empathy for their economic struggles. "While they may not have demonstrated compassion in the way you describe, Pierre Poilievre felt empathetic to the anxiety around scarcity," he said. "Now, in a world where that anger has shifted to fear, we are actually seeking a compassionate set of hands."

That shift is why figures like Carney, who projects calm and expertise, are benefiting. "Canadians aren't so angry anymore at the federal government," Coletto said. "They're really angry and have a deep sense of betrayal at Donald Trump."

Where Do the NDP and Bloc Fit?

One of the most surprising takeaways from my conversation with Coletto was his prediction that the NDP and Bloc Québécois may struggle to remain relevant in this election. "Even Quebecers, who would probably be the last to rally around the Canadian flag, are joining in," he said. "They're just as anxious and angry at Donald Trump as Canadians in other parts of the country."

This leaves little room for parties like the NDP, whose messaging may get drowned out in a high-stakes Liberal vs. Conservative showdown. "Jagmeet Singh, I can just visualize, sort of in the back, being like ‘Hey guys, what about me?’ because there's going to be such a sharp choice between Poilievre and Carney."

Media, Trust, and the Future of Political Discourse

We also discussed how media consumption is shaping voter perceptions. "One in four Canadians under 30 say their primary news source is TikTok," Coletto noted. That shift makes traditional campaign strategies less effective and rewards politicians who engage directly with new media. "Poilievre, to his credit, knows his audience. That’s why he goes on the Jordan Peterson podcast."

But while alternative media offers deeper conversations, it also lacks the editorial oversight of traditional journalism. "I hope everyone in your position takes it as seriously as you do, Aaron," Coletto told me. "Because I don't think they all do."

Hope Amid Uncertainty

Despite all the anxiety, Coletto sees reasons for optimism.

"I see a renewed interest in us being entrepreneurial and making things again. We're looking beyond the U.S. and saying, ‘Let’s engage with Asia and Europe.’"

Ultimately, Canada is at a crossroads. "The 2025 election is about whether this country embraces a leadership style rooted in fear and scarcity, or one that seeks to guide us through a period of precarity with competence and stability."

It’s clear that the stakes have never been higher. Canadians are paying attention—and this time, their choice will shape not just domestic policy, but how Canada positions itself in an increasingly uncertain world.